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February 20, 2020 Housing Market Potential Reaches Its Highest Level in Nearly Two Years “Build it and the homebodies just might buy it and provide welcome supply to the housing market.” By Mark Fleming and Odeta Kushi, First American Economic Insights -- The housing market started the year off strong, with the market potential for existing-home sales reaching its highest level since January 2018, according to our Potential Home Sales Model. Housing market potential increased 1.4 percent in January 2020 relative to the previous month, and grew 4.7 percent year over year, an increase of 240,050 potential existing-home sales and the highest rate of yearly growth since December 2017. Actual existing- home sales exceeded housing market potential by 1.0 percent, or an estimated 53,900 seasonally adjusted annualized sales. Demand Soars, Supply Sinks The growth in market potential for existing-home sales was primarily fueled by positive market demand dynamics. In 2020, 4.8 million millennials will turn 30 – the peak age for home-buying. They’re fortunate to be entering the housing market at a time of historically low mortgage rates and a strong economy. However, there are challenges. Millennials face a very limited supply of existing homes available for sale, especially homes in the entry-level price range. In January, the positive impact from market demand outweighed the negative impact of limited supply, boosting housing market potential relative to one year ago. Lower Rates and Wage Growth Boost Affordability The primary reason for increased housing market potential compared with one year ago was increased house-buying power, how much home one can afford to buy given household income and the prevailing mortgage rate. In January, after three months of slightly increasing mortgage rates, the 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage declined to 3.6 percent, 0.8 percentage points lower than one year ago. At the same time, the healthy labor market continued to boost wage growth, contributing to a 2.6 percent increase in household income. Low mortgage rates and income growth triggered a 13.5 percent increase in house-buying power compared with a year ago. This increase in house-buying power had the greatest impact on housing market potential in January, boosting market potential by 343,250 potential home sales. New Household Growth Boosts Demand for Homes According to recent estimates, 1.65 million new households were formed between December 2018 and December 2019. As more new households are formed, demand for housing rises. The increase in household formation enhanced market potential by 103,380 potential home sales in January compared with last year. End of Year Housing Supply Relief While the construction of new homes, specifically much needed single-family homes, remains below what is needed to satisfy demand, homebuilding took a sharp turn higher at the end of 2019. As new housing supply enters the market, the risk of not being able to find something to buy lessens, so homeowners may become more confident in the decision to sell their existing home. Compared with last year, the addition of new supply increased housing market potential by a modest 248 potential home sales. Homebodies Holding Back Market Potential The lack of existing homes available for sale is the most significant hindrance to housing market potential. Interestingly, the same dynamic that’s making homes more affordable is preventing more supply from entering the market. Persistently low mortgage rates can discourage existing homeowners from selling. The majority of homeowners already have a low mortgage rate because there has been ample opportunity to refinance to lower rates over the last decade. So, for a homeowner with a low mortgage rate, the only house-buying power advantage comes from household income growth. Many homeowners decide to “stay put,” as observed by rising average tenure length, and the inventory of homes for sale dwindles further. The aging of the U.S. population has also contributed to rising tenure length as many aging silent generation, baby boomer and Generation X homeowners decide to remain in their existing homes. More than half of all existing homes are owned by baby boomers and the silent generation, and they are choosing not to sell and consequently not buy either. While the year-over-year growth of tenure length slowed in January 2020, it is still 8.0 percent higher than one year ago. The increase in tenure length had the only negative impact on housing market potential this month, reducing it by 376,110 potential home sales compared with one year ago. Should We Expect More Good News for Housing in 2020? Housing demand is expected to grow in 2020, as millennials continue to form new households and mortgage rates remain below 4 percent. Additionally, wage growth driven by a strong labor market will continue to support house-buying power growth. While it’s unlikely that tenure length will decline significantly in a low and unchanging mortgage rate environment, additional new housing supply can incentivize existing homeowners to move. Build it and the homebodies just might buy it and provide welcome supply to the housing market. January 2020 Potential Home Sales
Market Performance Gap
What Insight Does the Potential Home Sales Model Reveal? When considering the right time to buy or sell a home, an important factor in the decision should be the market’s overall health, which is largely a function of supply and demand. Knowing how close the market is to a healthy level of activity can help consumers determine if it is a good time to buy or sell, and what might happen to the market in the future. That is difficult to assess when looking at the number of homes sold at a particular point in time without understanding the health of the market at that time. Historical context is critically important. Our potential home sales model measures what we believe a healthy market level of home sales should be based on the economic, demographic and housing market environments. About the Potential Home Sales Model Potential home sales measures existing-homes sales, which include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate based on the historical relationship between existing-home sales and U.S. population demographic data, homeowner tenure, house-buying power in the U.S. economy, price trends in the U.S. housing market, and conditions in the financial market. When the actual level of existing-home sales are significantly above potential home sales, the pace of turnover is not supported by market fundamentals and there is an increased likelihood of a market correction. Conversely, seasonally adjusted, annualized rates of actual existing-home sales below the level of potential existing-home sales indicate market turnover is underperforming the rate fundamentally supported by the current conditions. Actual seasonally adjusted annualized existing-home sales may exceed or fall short of the potential rate of sales for a variety of reasons, including non-traditional market conditions, policy constraints and market participant behavior. Recent potential home sale estimates are subject to revision to reflect the most up-to-date information available on the economy, housing market and financial conditions. The Potential Home Sales model is published prior to the National Association of Realtors’ Existing-Home Sales report each month. February 6, 2020 Three-year low in rates makes 11.3 million mortgages refi-eligible The average savings per borrower would be $268 a month, Black Knight says By Kathleen Howley, Housing Wire -- A three-year low in the average U.S. rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage pushed the number of “refi eligible” borrowers to 11.3 million, the second-highest on record, according to Black Knight. That figures represents the number of borrowers paying interest that’s 0.75% or higher than current rates who also have credit scores above 720 and enough equity to get a new loan, the mortgage data and software firm said. The average savings per borrower would be $268 a month, Black Knight said. That means the aggregate savings, if all eligible borrowers got new mortgages, would be $3.03 billion a month. Since Americans love new gadgets, much of that would be put into the economy to boost the consumer spending that accounts for about 70% of GDP. If you don’t consider credit scores and equity, there are 22 million mortgage holders who have loans more than 0.75% higher than current rates, what the mortgage industry calls being “in the money,” Black Knight said. That, too, is the second-highest on record. The record for both categories was set in September, the last time rates fell to a three-year low. But, many of the borrowers who were refi-eligible then have already gotten new loans with cheaper financing. The average U.S. rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage this week fell to a three-year low of 3.45% as worries about coronavirus drove investors into the U.S. bond markets. When investors get rattled, they tend to cash out of stocks and put their money in bonds, which are perceived as being safer. That creates more competition for bonds, including mortgage bonds, and forces investors to accept smaller yields. When they do, borrowers reap the benefit because it translates into cheaper rates for home loans. The three year low reported by Freddie Mac on Thursday was the cheapest rate since 3.42% in the first week of October 2016 and it’ s almost a full percentage point below the 4.41% recorded a year earlier. February 3, 2020
By Mark Fleming and Odeta Kushi, First American Economic Insights Blog -- The final month of 2019 saw actual existing-home sales exceed housing market potential by 1.2 percent, or an estimated 64,830 seasonally adjusted annualized sales. According to our Potential Home Sales Model, housing market potential increased 1.7 percent in December 2019 relative to the previous month, and grew 2.6 percent year over year, an increase of 134,460 potential existing-home sales. The Duality of Low Mortgage Rates The growth in the market potential for existing-home sales is the net result of several forces that either boost or bash housing market potential. However, one market driver is actually both a positive and a negative influence on housing market potential – persistently low mortgage rates.
reducing the supply of existing homes for sale – this is the duality of low mortgage rates.” Lower Rates Boost Affordability In December 2019, the primary driver of rising housing market potential compared with one year ago was increased house-buying power, how much home one can afford to buy given household income and the prevailing mortgage rate. House-buying power was 12.5 percent higher than a year ago. This increase in house-buying power had the greatest impact on housing market potential in 2019, boosting market potential by 316,000 potential home sales. The house-buying power surge was driven by the combined impact of lower mortgage rates, which were 0.92 percent lower in December than they were a year ago, and a 2.4 percent increase in annual household income. Clearly, lower mortgage rates result in considerable affordability gains for potential home buyers, which boost home-buying demand and, in turn, market potential. Persistently Low Rates Increase Tenure Length, Reduce Supply Falling mortgage rates can help incentivize homeowners to sell their home and purchase a different home, but persistently low mortgage rates can have the opposite effect. The decades-long decline in the 30-year, fixed mortgage rate, dropping from a high of 18 percent in 1981 to a low of nearly 3 percent in 2012, to just below 4 percent today, has helped prod the housing market. This long- run decline increased affordability and encouraged existing homeowners to move. However, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has hovered below 5 percent since the end of the Great Recession – nearly a decade ago! While historically low rates increase buying power and make it more affordable for potential buyers to purchase a home, they also discourage many existing homeowners from selling. There is little to no house-buying power benefit for homeowners with an already low mortgage rate, so the only way existing homeowners can increase their house-buying power is through household income growth. This helps explain why more and more homeowners have decided to “stay put,” reducing the inventory of homes for sale. As a result, tenure length (how long one stays in a home between moves) has increased dramatically. Prior to the recession, tenure length was less than six years on average. In December 2019, tenure length approached 12 years, up 8 percent compared with one year ago. According to our analysis, lower rates boost housing market potential, but also discourage homeowners from selling and increase tenure length, thus reducing the supply of existing homes for sale – this is the duality of low mortgage rates. What Does This Mean For 2020? Consensus among forecasters is that mortgage rates will remain below 4 percent for the next two years. Low mortgage rates and increased house-buying power will continue to boost demand, as will demographic tailwinds from millennials entering their prime home- buying years. On the other hand, those persistently low rates will discourage existing homeowners from selling, pushing up tenure length and limiting the inventory of homes available for sale. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean we should expect housing market potential to decline. There are many considerations that go into one’s housing tenure decision, which could result in the desire to move. The lack of housing supply has been the norm for several years, yet the housing market has endured. December 2019 Potential Home Sales
Market Performance Gap
When considering the right time to buy or sell a home, an important factor in the decision should be the market’s overall health, which is largely a function of supply and demand. Knowing how close the market is to a healthy level of activity can help consumers determine if it is a good time to buy or sell, and what might happen to the market in the future. That is difficult to assess when looking at the number of homes sold at a particular point in time without understanding the health of the market at that time. Historical context is critically important. Our potential home sales model measures what we believe a healthy market level of home sales should be based on the economic, demographic and housing market environments. About the Potential Home Sales Model Potential home sales measures existing-homes sales, which include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate based on the historical relationship between existing-home sales and U.S. population demographic data, homeowner tenure, house-buying power in the U.S. economy, price trends in the U.S. housing market, and conditions in the financial market. When the actual level of existing-home sales are significantly above potential home sales, the pace of turnover is not supported by market fundamentals and there is an increased likelihood of a market correction. Conversely, seasonally adjusted, annualized rates of actual existing-home sales below the level of potential existing-home sales indicate market turnover is underperforming the rate fundamentally supported by the current conditions. Actual seasonally adjusted annualized existing-home sales may exceed or fall short of the potential rate of sales for a variety of reasons, including non-traditional market conditions, policy constraints and market participant behavior. Recent potential home sale estimates are subject to revision to reflect the most up-to-date information available on the economy, housing market and financial conditions. The Potential Home Sales model is published prior to the National Association of Realtors’ Existing-Home Sales report each month.
Home seller profits hit new high as people are staying in their homes longer than ever Which came first, the housing tenure or the profit? By Maleesa Smith, Housing Wire -- People are staying in their homes longer than ever before, but it may pay off big for them should they choose to move. That’s according to a recent report from ATTOM Data Solutions, which stated that both homeownership tenure and home seller profits simultaneously hit new highs. ATTOM’s Year-End 2019 U.S. Home Sales Report states that the average American home seller took in a $65,500 profit in 2019. That’s up from $58,100 in 2018 and up from $50,027 before that. In percentages, that seller profit represents a 34% return on investment compared to the original purchase price. In 2018, sellers saw a 31.4% return, while sellers in 2017 brought in a 27.4% return on investment. “The nation’s housing boom kept roaring along in 2019 as prices hit a new record, returning ever-higher profits to home sellers and posing ever-greater challenges for buyers seeking bargains. In short, it was a great year to be a seller,” said Todd Teta, chief product officer at ATTOM Data Solutions. “But there were signs that the market was losing some steam last year, as profits and profit margins increased at the slowest pace since 2011,” Teta added. “While low mortgage rates are propping up prices, the declining progress suggests some uncertainty going into the 2020 buying season.” And while the average home sellers are bringing in higher profits than ever before, homeowners are also staying put longer than ever before too. ATTOM states that homeowners who sold in the fourth quarter of 2019 had owned their homes an average of 8.21 years. That’s an increase from a homeownership tenure of 8.08 years in the third quarter. That said, the national average tenure certainly does not apply to all cities including Colorado Springs, Colorado (down 9% in housing tenure); Modesto, California (down 7%); Visalia, California (down 5%); Oklahoma City, Oklahoma (down 5%) and Olympia, Washington (down 5%). However, people living in Connecticut seem to be there for the long haul. According to the report, the top five longest homeownership tenures all stemmed from the northern state, including: Norwich (13.49 years); New Haven (13.32 years) Bridgeport-Stamford (13.23 years); Torrington (12.33 years) and Hartford (12.25 years). December 31, 2019 The 2010s: A decade that changed the way agents work Desk time, cold calls, and wet-ink signatures have gone out of style By Kathleen Howley, Housing Wire -- The 2010s marked a tectonic shift in the way real estate agents conduct business. It wasn’t the most tumultuous decade in real estate history. The 2000s have that distinction because of the record-setting crash that started in 2007. But looking at the way agents spend their days, few 10-year stretches have seen such change. Here’s a look back: Once upon a time – a decade ago – all the people who wanted to buy houses had to meet with real estate agents in person to sign disclosures with pens. Think brick-and-mortar offices and stick-or-click pens with a choice of blue or black ink. Today, most disclosures are signed electronically. Agents went to the office more, back then, and many were required to do “desk time” at least once a week. That meant sitting in the front to answer the brokerage’s main telephone line and greet walk-in visitors, hoping to nab a client. Yes, back then people cold-called brokerages looking for information on buying and selling a home. And, agents cold-called potential customers, as a way to generate leads. “Who calls people anymore?” said David Michonski, who sold real estate for more than three decades and now is the CEO of Quigler, an app to track compliance for agents and clients. “If you don’t recognize a caller ID, you don’t answer it, ‘cause it’s all robo-callers.” Today, agents tend to purchase leads from online sources such as Zillow and other real estate websites, he said. Clients tend to call agents on their cell phones after finding them on the internet, Michonski said. “Prospecting has changed quite a bit,” he said. For the most part, weekly office meetings for agents and their coworkers to collaborate are a thing of the past, said Michonski, who ran several brokerages. “I used to insist that agents come into the office because I felt there was a synergy, a shared energy, and people bonded, but most brokerages have stopped doing that in the last 10 years,” Michonski said. “More agents now are sort of siloed, as opposed to being part of a unit.” A decade ago, agents with customers looking at homes were more likely to be driving them around. That led to the distinction between a “listing car,” used to visit a potential seller with a marketing packet and a contract to be signed in-person with a pen, and a “showing car” that needed to be free of dog hair and Cheerios because it was used to ferry potential buyers to an array of properties. Smartphones were new inventions, back in 2010, and people tended to rely on verbal directions, rather than using Google Maps or another GPS app. Part of the value agents brought to a transaction was a geographical knowledge of their market. Today, agents are more likely to text an address to customers and meet them at the property. And, the buyers are more likely to have vetted available homes online and have a clearer idea of what they’re interested in seeing. In 2010, the nation had just passed the zenith of the foreclosure crisis: 3 million families lost their homes in 2009. Only about 60% of Americans thought homeownership was a good idea, as opposed to about 92% today, as measured by Fannie Mae. And, being a real estate agent was not seen as a fabulous life choice. Membership in the National Association of Realtors tumbled 30% between October 2006 and March of 2012. Today, some of the shine is back on the real estate industry. NAR membership reached a record high of 1.41 million in October. One problem agents didn’t have back then is a shortage of homes for sale. In May 2010, the seasonally adjusted “months supply” of homes for sale, meaning the time it would take to sell off the entire inventory, was 9.3 months. In November, it was 3.9 months, the lowest ever recorded for that month. Most economists consider a 6-month supply to be a balanced market. November 22, 2019 Federal Reserve united against Trump’s demand for negative interest rates The use of negative rates carries too much instability risk, Fed policymakers said By Kathleen Howley, Housing Wire -- President Donald Trump has extolled negative interest rates on Twitter and in speeches, making clear he wants the Federal Reserve to slash its benchmark rate below zero, a policy it has never used before. Fed policymakers are unanimous in their distaste for the idea, judging from the minutes released on Wednesday for the Fed’s October meeting. The use of negative rates carries “risks of introducing significant complexity or distortions to the financial system,” according to the minutes. It’s the first known time the policymakers on the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, have had an on-the-record discussion about the possibility of using the monetary policy the European Central Bank introduced in 2014. At the Oct. 29 to 30 meeting, the Fed cut its rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a range of 1.5% to 1.75% and signaled it likely was done with easing, for now. “All participants judged that negative interest rates currently did not appear to be an attractive monetary policy tool in the United States,” the minutes said. “It was unclear what effects negative rates might have on the willingness of financial intermediaries to lend and on the spending plans of households and businesses.” The adoption of negative interest rates by the European Central Bank has failed to stave off a slowdown. Economic growth in the Euro Area probably will fall to 1.1% this year and 1% in 2020, according to the average estimate of economists in a Bloomberg poll. Last year, the growth rate was 1.9% and in 2017 it was 2.7%. “Remember we are actively competing with nations who openly cut interest rates so that now many are actually getting paid when they pay off their loan – known as negative interest,” Trump said in a speech to the Economic Club of New York on Nov. 12. “Whoever heard of such a thing? Give me some of that. Give me some of that money. I want some of that money. Our Federal Reserve doesn’t let us do it.” Under a negative rate policy, banks and other financial institutions have to pay interest for parking excess reserves with the central bank. It’s a way to encourage banks to lend to businesses and consumers, who don’t get paid to borrow, contrary to the president’s description. “Differences between the U.S. financial system and the financial systems of those jurisdictions suggested that the foreign experience may not provide a useful guide in assessing whether negative rates would be effective in the United States,” the Fed minutes said. “Negative rates could have more significant adverse effects on market functioning and financial stability here than abroad.”
U.S. housing market experiences largest inventory decline since 2018 In October, the number of homes for sale grew 3.9% from the previous year By Alcynna Lloyd, Housing Wire -- In October, America’s home sales rose by 3.9%, marking the fourth month of the past six to post a year-over-year increase in sales, according to the RE/MAX National Housing Report. “October continued a recent win streak for home sales, and the market is positioned much better than it was a year ago,” said RE/MAX Holdings CEO Adam Contos. “Demand is strong, due in part to low-interest rates, but buyers have limited options because inventory remains such a challenge.” RE/MAX reports that although sales increased last month, the nation’s housing inventory posted a steep decline. According to the company, housing inventory fell 9% year-over-year across the report’s 54 housing markets, representing the largest retreat since May 2018. Furthermore, October posted a 3.1-month supply of inventory, marking the lowest October amount in the report’s 11-year history. RE/MAX indicates homes spent 49 days on the market, which is the second-lowest figure for October in report history. As the nation’s housing inventory dwindles, home prices continue to rise across the country, Contos said. However, key forecasts suggest an increase in new-homes moving onto the market next year, which Contos said may help address inventory constraints and potentially slow steady price gains. According to the report, the median price for a home was $254,000 in October, climbing 8.4% from last year. Going back to October 2013, last month’s total now marks the highest annual increase for the month. NOTE: The RE/MAX National Housing Report is based on MLS data in approximately 53 metropolitan areas, including all residential property types, and is not annualized. For maximum representation, many of the largest metro areas in the country are represented, and an attempt is made to include at least one metro from each state.
Index published by the National Association of Home Builders rose one index point to 55 in the second quarter of 2019. Since the second quarter of 2013, the RMI has been consistently above 50 — indicating that most remodelers report market activity is higher compared to the previous quarter. The index averages current remodeling activity and future indicators. “The demand for remodeling continues to hold strong throughout the country,” said Tim Ellis, of NAHB. “However, the lack of skilled labor continues to be one of the largest roadblocks in the industry.” |